*Our statistics use the case entry date, aligning better with our advanced bankruptcy report and case list data for subscribed BankruptcyWatch users.

Our Analysis of Week 45 Bankruptcy Filing Statistics by Chapter (Updated November 9th, 2026)

Week 45 showed divergent trends, with consumer bankruptcies rising about 3% to 10,115 filings while business filings plummeted roughly 47% to 174 cases compared with the same week last year.

Chapter 7 filings, a lifeline for many struggling households, were up 0.87% year-over-year (5,841 in 2025 to 5,892 in 2026). Chapter 13 filings, allowing individuals to restructure their debt, were up 7.37% year-over-year (3,933 in 2025 to 4,223 in 2026). Chapter 11 filings, often used by businesses facing insolvency, were down 47.06% year-over-year (323 in 2025 to 171 in 2026).

Bankruptcy and Consumer Debt News We're Reading This Week

Want to know about the news articles that caught our eye this week? Start here.

• Credit card debt climbs to $1.26 trillion as ‘K-shaped’ divide persists, New York Fed research finds
• House Passes Bankruptcy Threshold Adjustment Act
• Temporary Fee Increase Effective Jan. 1, 2027 | PACER: Federal Court Records\
• Leading Companies Filing for Bankruptcy 2026

AI Analysis of 2026 Week 45 Bankruptcy Filing Data

We exported our dataset of daily filing numbers by chapter and district to different AI models and asked for analysis. Below are the exact results for each model.

Claude Opus 4.7 Extra Analysis of Week 45 Bankruptcy Filings

1. Overview of this week’s National filings. For the week of November 9, the country recorded 10,289 total bankruptcy filings, the highest week-45 figure in the entire five-year span of the dataset. Chapter 7 liquidations made up 5,892 filings during week 45, or roughly 57.3% of the national total, while Chapter 13 wage-earner reorganizations contributed 4,223 filings, about 41.0% — one of the highest Chapter 13 shares seen in any 2026 week. Chapter 11 business reorganizations added 171 filings and Chapter 12 farm filings totaled just 3, together accounting for about 1.7% of week 45 activity. Week-over-week, total filings dropped sharply by 36.8% from week 44’s 16,280, pulling back from that extraordinary surge and settling below the 2026 year-to-date weekly average of 12,036. Year-over-year, week 45 of 2026 is up just 1.9% compared with the same week in 2025, which posted 10,101 filings.
2. An interesting fact about this week’s filings. The most striking detail about the week of November 9 is the Northern District of Georgia’s stunning 307 Chapter 13 filings — the third time in 2026 the district has topped the 300 mark for Chapter 13 in a single week, and a figure that alone represents 7.3% of all Chapter 13 filings nationwide. Chapter 11 business filings dropped 47.1% year-over-year to 171 (from 323 in week 45 of 2025), led by Delaware with 19 filings, followed by the Northern District of Texas at 15 and the Northern District of Georgia at 12. Chapter 12 farm filings dwindled to just 3 nationwide, with the Middle District of Georgia producing 2 and the Eastern District of Texas 1. Year-over-year, Chapter 7 was essentially flat at 0.9% growth (from 5,841 to 5,892), while Chapter 13 climbed 7.4% (from 3,933 to 4,223) — showing a week dominated by consumer wage-earner filings. Together, these patterns suggest a return to normalcy after the prior week’s huge end-of-month surge.
3. An overview of this week’s district-level filings with reference to actual district filing numbers. Combining all four chapters during the week of November 9, the Northern District of Georgia led the country with 535 filings, followed by the Central District of California at 520, the Middle District of Florida at 456, and the Northern District of Illinois at 338. The Northern District of Texas recorded 288 total filings during week 45, the Southern District of Texas 286, both the Eastern District of Virginia and Eastern District of Michigan tied at 278 each, Maryland 270, and the Northern District of Ohio 260. Looking at Chapter 7 alone, the Central District of California posted 447, the Middle District of Florida 341, the Northern District of Georgia 216, the Northern District of Ohio 200, the Eastern District of Michigan 187, the Northern District of Illinois 181, Arizona 174, the Southern District of Ohio 162, the Eastern District of Virginia 159, and Maryland 148. On the Chapter 13 side, the Northern District of Georgia led with 307, followed by the Northern District of Texas at 171, the Southern District of Texas at 163, the Northern District of Illinois at 151, the Western District of Tennessee at 139, the Middle District of Georgia at 122, Maryland and the Northern District of Alabama tied at 120 each, and both New Jersey and the Eastern District of Virginia tied at 116 each. The top ten districts during week 45 together produced about 3,549 filings, accounting for roughly 34.5% of the 10,289-filing national total.
4. Geographic (district) disparities in filings. The disparity between busy and quiet districts during week 45 remained enormous: while the Northern District of Georgia posted 535 total filings, the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam each recorded zero, with the Virgin Islands at just 1. Other very low-volume districts during the week of November 9 included Alaska at 2, the District of Columbia at 3, Wyoming, Vermont, and Montana tied at 9 each, the Northern District of West Virginia at 11, and the Northern District of Iowa at 12. The Northern District of Georgia alone (535 filings) produced more activity during week 45 than the bottom 30 districts combined. The southeastern Sun Belt and major metro districts of California, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, and Ohio dominated the overall leaderboard for week 45, with both Texas districts (Northern and Southern) appearing in the top ten simultaneously. This pattern of concentration is structural, reflecting population, regional economic stress, and entrenched filing behaviors rather than any one-week anomaly.
5. Current year focus. Through the first 45 weeks of 2026, the country has logged 541,621 total filings, an average of 12,036 per week and comfortably ahead of every prior year in the dataset at the same point on the calendar. The year began softer at 9,012 in week 1 but has trended firmly upward, with notable peaks of 14,157 in week 5, 15,290 in week 9, 14,380 in week 14, 16,091 in week 18, 14,259 in week 22, 12,569 in week 27, 15,891 in week 31, 15,162 in week 40, and 16,280 in week 44, with the week of November 9 pulling back to 10,289. Chapter 7 dropped to 5,892 during week 45 (down from 10,379 the prior week), while Chapter 13 slipped to 4,223 (down from 5,520). Chapter 11 climbed to 171 in week 45 from 155 the prior week, and Chapter 12 slipped to 3 from 4. The overall pattern for 2026 is a clearly higher baseline than any earlier year covered by the dataset, and year-to-date volume is now firmly on track to finish the year around 620,000 filings.
6. Comparative analysis with previous years. Looking at the same week 45 across years yields an uneven path: 6,879 in 2022, 9,171 in 2023, 8,932 in 2024, 10,101 in 2025, and 10,289 in 2026 — a cumulative increase of about 49.6% over the four-year span. Annual growth rates for week 45 specifically were 33.3% (2023), -2.6% (2024), 13.1% (2025), and 1.9% (2026), showing meaningful deceleration this year as 2025’s higher base makes outperformance harder. The same upward trend appears in year-to-date totals through week 45: 329,832 in 2022, 386,640 in 2023, 440,987 in 2024, 491,152 in 2025, and 541,621 in 2026. That means 2026 is running about 10.3% ahead of 2025’s pace at the same point on the calendar and roughly 64.2% ahead of where 2022 stood after 45 weeks. The combination of a modest week-of-November-9 year-over-year figure and still-strong year-to-date gains suggests the rate of growth is moderating as 2025’s comparison base becomes higher.
7. Analyzing the filings per capita. Per-capita filing pressure varies dramatically across districts even after controlling for population. During week 45, the Central District of California, with roughly 20 million residents, produced 520 total filings — about 26 per million residents. The Northern District of Georgia, with around 6.5 million residents, produced 535 filings during the week of November 9, which works out to roughly 82 per million, more than three times Southern California’s per-capita rate. The Western District of Tennessee (139 Chapter 13 filings) and the Northern District of Alabama (120 Chapter 13 filings) sit even higher on a per-resident basis, while the Middle District of Georgia’s 122 Chapter 13 filings translate to a notably elevated per-capita reading given its 1.6-million population. Adjusted for population, the heaviest filing pressure during week 45 clearly concentrates across the southeastern Sun Belt rather than in the largest absolute-volume coastal metros.
8. Analyzing the changing filings per capita. Because U.S. population has grown only roughly 0.5–0.6% per year while filings have risen 2–33% annually since 2022 at this point on the calendar, the per-capita filing rate has climbed sharply over the past four years. Nationally, week 45 of 2026’s 10,289 filings translate to about 30 per million residents, up from roughly 20 per million in week 45 of 2022 — an increase of about 50% in four years. Districts that were already filing-heavy have seen the steepest per-capita rises, especially the Northern District of Georgia, whose 535 combined filings during the week of November 9 represent a substantial step-up from typical week-45 totals in the mid-300s back in 2022. In contrast, the lowest-filing jurisdictions during week 45 (Alaska at 2, District of Columbia at 3, Wyoming, Vermont, and Montana at 9 each, Northern District of West Virginia at 11) remain essentially flat in per-capita terms and very low in absolute terms. The widening per-capita gap means financial distress is becoming more geographically concentrated rather than more evenly distributed year after year.
9. Forecast the expected filing numbers for the rest of the year. With 541,621 filings already logged through week 45, if the rest of 2026 follows 2025’s seasonal pattern, the remaining 7 weeks (weeks 46 through 52) should produce roughly 79,000 additional filings, putting the full year near 621,000 total filings compared with 562,658 in 2025. Using the year-to-date 2026 weekly average of 12,036 applied to the remaining 7 weeks yields a projection of about 84,000 more filings and a year-end total around 626,000. A more conservative scenario that accounts for the typical late-year holiday slowdown (week 52 of 2025 dropped to just 6,678) would land closer to 618,000–628,000. Taken together, the most likely 2026 year-end range is approximately 618,000 to 632,000 total filings, with the central estimate near 622,000. That would represent roughly 10–12% growth over 2025’s full-year total of 562,658.
10. Forecast the trends of increasing filings after 2025. The four-year trajectory of full-year totals (378,338 in 2022, 445,209 in 2023, 503,795 in 2024, 562,658 in 2025, and a projected ~622,000 in 2026) implies a compound annual growth rate of about 14% from 2022 through 2025, easing to roughly 11% in 2026. If the modest week-of-November-9 year-over-year figure (1.9%) represents a sustained slowdown rather than a one-week calm-after-surge, annual increases could moderate to about 4–6% in 2027 and 2–4% in 2028, putting filings into the 650,000–680,000 range by 2027 and the 665,000–705,000 range by 2028. The chapter mix is also likely to keep shifting: Chapter 13 grew 7.4% year-over-year during week 45 (from 3,933 to 4,223), Chapter 7 rose just 0.9% (from 5,841 to 5,892), while Chapter 11 fell 47.1% (from 323 to 171) and Chapter 12 dropped 25.0% (from 4 to 3). Chapter 13, propelled by southeastern Sun Belt and Texas districts that produced 307, 171, 163, 151, 139, 122, 120, 120, 116, and 116 filings during the week of November 9 alone, is likely to retain its steady 32–41% share of the national total. The biggest risk to this baseline remains a recession, credit-tightening shock, or commercial real estate crisis — any of which could push 2027 filings well above the smoothed projection rather than modestly below it.

ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking Pro Analysis of Week 45 Filing Trends

1. For week 45, beginning Monday, November 9, 2026, national bankruptcy filings totaled 10,289 as reported through November 11. Chapter 7 accounted for 5,892 filings, Chapter 13 accounted for 4,223, Chapter 11 accounted for 171, and Chapter 12 accounted for 3. The national total was 5,991 filings lower than week 44’s 16,280, a decrease of 36.8%. Compared with week 45 of 2025, when there were 10,101 filings, the reported total was higher by 188 filings, or 1.9%. Because week 45 is still underway, these figures are preliminary and may increase before the week ends.
2. One interesting feature of week 45 was that Chapter 13 represented a larger share of national filings than it did the previous week. Chapter 7 declined from 10,449 filings in week 44 to 5,892 in week 45, a decrease of 4,557 filings. Chapter 13 also declined, moving from 5,653 to 4,223 filings, but its decrease of 1,430 filings was smaller. Chapter 11 moved slightly lower from 174 to 171, while Chapter 12 decreased from 4 to 3. Together, Chapters 7 and 13 accounted for 10,115 filings, or 98.3% of the reported national total of 10,289.
3. At the district level, week 45 was led by Northern Georgia with 535 filings. Central California followed closely with 520 filings, Middle Florida had 456, Northern Illinois had 338, and Northern Texas recorded 288. Southern Texas reported 286 filings, Eastern Michigan and Eastern Virginia each had 278, Maryland had 270, and Northern Ohio recorded 260. The top 5 districts together accounted for 2,137 filings. Those 2,137 filings represented 20.8% of the national total of 10,289, showing that a relatively small number of districts continued to account for a substantial share of bankruptcy activity.
4. Geographic differences remained noticeable during week 45, beginning Monday, November 9, 2026. The average district recorded 109.5 filings, while the median district reported 82. Northern Georgia’s 535 filings were approximately 6.5 times the median district total. There were 16 districts with at least 200 filings, including Central California at 520, Middle Florida at 456, and Northern Illinois at 338. At the other end, 19 districts recorded 20 or fewer filings, including Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands at 0, the Virgin Islands at 1, Alaska at 2, and Vermont, Montana, and Wyoming at 9 each.
5. The 2026 year-to-date picture continues to show national bankruptcy filings running ahead of the same point in 2025. Through the reported portion of week 45, national filings totaled 541,621 in 2026, compared with 491,152 through week 45 of 2025. That represents an increase of 50,469 filings, or 10.3%, over the previous year. Chapter 7 contributed 342,351 filings so far in 2026, while Chapter 13 accounted for 190,760. Chapter 11 added 8,200 filings and Chapter 12 contributed 310, confirming that Chapters 7 and 13 continue to account for the overwhelming majority of nationwide bankruptcy activity.
6. Week 45 of 2026 has already recorded more filings than the same week in every previous year shown in the data, despite the current week being incomplete. The comparable weekly totals were 6,879 in 2022, 9,171 in 2023, 8,932 in 2024, 10,101 in 2025, and 10,289 so far in 2026. This year’s reported week 45 total was 49.6% higher than 2022 and 12.2% higher than 2023. It was also 15.2% higher than 2024 and 1.9% higher than 2025. Looking at the first 45 weeks, 2026’s 541,621 filings were 100,634 higher than the 440,987 recorded through the same point in 2024.
7. A true per-capita bankruptcy filing rate cannot be calculated from the available weekly figures alone because district population counts are not included. However, comparing the average number of filings per district provides another way to understand how bankruptcy activity is distributed across the country. For week 45, the reported national total of 10,289 filings across 94 districts produced an average of 109.5 filings per district. The median district recorded 82 filings, which was approximately 27.5 below the district average. Northern Georgia’s 535 filings were approximately 4.9 times the district average, while Central California’s 520 filings were approximately 4.8 times that average.
8. Looking at changes in filing activity across districts, week 45 continues to reflect higher bankruptcy filings than earlier years. National filings increased from 6,879 in week 45 of 2022 to 10,289 reported so far during the same week of 2026, a gain of 3,410 filings. Across 94 districts, the average increased from 73.2 filings per district in 2022 to 109.5 in 2026. Compared with week 45 of 2025, the reported average increased from 107.5 to 109.5 filings per district. That represents approximately 2.0 additional filings per district, although the current week must finish and population figures would be needed to determine whether per-capita rates followed the same trend.
9. A simple forecast based on the 2026 year-to-date average of 12,036.0 filings per week points to approximately 637,909 filings for the full 53-week reporting year. With 541,621 filings reported through the current portion of week 45, maintaining that average across the remaining 8 reporting weeks would add approximately 96,288 filings. A second approach applies the current 10.3% year-to-date growth rate to the 71,506 filings recorded during weeks 46 through 52 of 2025, then estimates the additional 53rd week using the 2026 weekly average. That approach suggests approximately 90,890 additional filings, bringing the projected annual total to around 632,511. Together, these approaches suggest a preliminary year-end range of approximately 632,511 to 637,909 filings, although the forecast remains uncertain because week 45 is not yet complete.
10. The longer-term trend after 2025 remains upward, with 2026 continuing to report higher cumulative bankruptcy filings than previous years. Week 45 of 2026 has recorded 10,289 filings so far, compared with 10,101 during the full corresponding week in 2025, an increase of 1.9%. Through the reported portion of week 45, national filings reached 541,621, compared with 491,152 in 2025, representing a year-to-date increase of 10.3%. The full-year weekly average rose from 7,275.7 in 2022 to 8,561.7 in 2023, 9,688.4 in 2024, and 10,820.3 in 2025. If the current 2026 average of 12,036.0 filings per week continues, it would represent approximately 1,215.7 additional filings per week compared with 2025, supporting expectations of higher annual filings while leaving room for normal weekly fluctuations.

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Analysis of Week 45 Bankruptcy Statistics

1. Overview of This Week’s National Filings The week ending November 9, 2026 produced 10,289 federal bankruptcy filings across the United States — a sharp decline of -36.8% from the prior week’s exceptional 16,280 and a return to the mid-range territory that characterized most of October. Chapter 7 liquidations accounted for 5,892 filings at 57.3% of the weekly total, their lowest share of the year, while Chapter 13 wage-earner reorganizations rose to 4,223 cases at an unusually high 41.0% — a notable compositional shift that deserves attention in its own right. Chapter 11 commercial restructurings added 171 cases at 1.7%, and three Chapter 12 agricultural filings rounded out the count. The week’s sharp pullback was entirely expected given the historical behavior of this calendar transition: every prior year has seen a significant decline from Week 44 to Week 45, ranging from -11.6% in 2023 to -32.7% in 2025. Despite the week-over-week retreat, Week 45’s 10,289 represents a solid +1.9% gain over last year’s comparable reading of 10,101, keeping the year’s positive trajectory intact.
2. An Interesting Fact About This Week’s Filings Week 45’s -36.8% week-over-week decline is the steepest Wk44-to-Wk45 drop in the four-year historical series, edging past 2025’s -32.7% and 2024’s -32.0% — a fitting bookend to Week 44’s record-setting +36.3% surge, as the larger the spike, the sharper the gravity-driven correction. The more striking compositional story this week is in the chapter mix: Chapter 13 reached 41.0% of all filings, its highest weekly share of the year by a substantial margin, while Chapter 7 fell to 57.3% — a reversal of the usual dominant pattern where Chapter 7 typically commands 62–65% of weekly volume. This Chapter 13 surge suggests that the Week 44 spike disproportionately cleared a backlog of Chapter 7 filings, leaving a relatively higher proportion of Chapter 13 reorganization cases in the weeks that follow. Meanwhile, Chapter 11 posted 171 filings and its year-to-date total now stands at 8,200 — just 99 cases short of breaking 2025’s full-year Chapter 11 total of 8,299 with seven weeks still remaining, making the new annual commercial restructuring record a near-mathematical certainty by next week. The combined picture — a predictable post-spike pullback, an unusually high Chapter 13 share, and an imminent Chapter 11 record — makes Week 45 one of the more analytically rich weeks of the year despite its modest headline number.
3. An Overview of This Week’s District-Level Filings Georgia Northern broke from the typical hierarchy this week to lead all federal courts with 535 filings — 5.2% of national activity — a notably strong performance for the Atlanta-area court that is not usually the top-ranked district. California Central placed second at 520 (5.1%), and Florida Middle — the year’s most consistent leader — fell to third at 456 (4.4%), reflecting the sharper pullback in higher-volume courts following last week’s surge. Illinois Northern contributed 338 cases at 3.3%, and Texas Northern and Texas Southern each placed at 288 and 286 filings respectively, continuing their elevated autumn presence at 2.8% each. Virginia Eastern (278, 2.7%), Michigan Eastern (278, 2.7%), Maryland (270, 2.6%), and Ohio Northern (260, 2.5%) filled out the mid-tier, followed by New Jersey (252), Florida Southern (240), Ohio Southern (220), Arizona (218), and Alabama Northern (203) rounding out the top 15. At the other end, Guam registered zero filings, the Northern Mariana Islands and U.S. Virgin Islands collectively registered just one, Alaska posted only 2, and the District of Columbia recorded just 3 — a combined total of 6 filings from four jurisdictions that together serve millions of residents.
4. Geographic Disparities in Filings Georgia Northern’s 535-filing week is 268 times Alaska’s 2 — the widest ratio between the top and bottom active courts seen in many weeks, reflecting both Georgia Northern’s unusually strong reading and Alaska’s post-spike collapse to its lowest weekly count since January. The top two districts, Georgia Northern and California Central, together accounted for 1,055 filings — 10.3% of all national activity — from just two of 94 federal courts, a concentration that has been remarkably stable throughout 2026 regardless of which courts occupy those positions. Florida Middle’s slip to third place is itself notable: it had ranked first or second in the overwhelming majority of weeks this year, and its 456-filing count still represents a healthy absolute volume, underscoring how the court’s typical dominance becomes visible only when comparison benchmarks are removed. The Southeast corridor — Georgia Northern, Florida Middle, Florida Southern, Virginia Eastern, and Alabama Northern — combined for 1,712 filings at 16.6% of the national total, with the unusual distinction of Georgia leading the bloc for one of the few times this year. The territorial courts — Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands — together recorded just one filing across three jurisdictions, a reminder of how thoroughly concentrated the national bankruptcy system remains in a small number of high-population mainland districts.
5. Current Year Focus Through Week 45, cumulative 2026 filings stand at 541,621 — now 96.3% of 2025’s full-year figure of 562,658, with seven weeks still remaining. The comparable 2025 YTD through Week 45 was 491,152, meaning 2026 is running 10.3% ahead and has locked in a year-over-year surplus of 50,469 cases that cannot close regardless of how the remaining weeks perform. The weekly running average through Week 45 settled to 12,036 per week, edging down slightly from Week 44’s 12,071 as the lower Week 45 count diluted the cumulative pace. Chapter 7 YTD filings total 342,351 at 63.2% of the cumulative count, Chapter 13 adds 190,760 at 35.2%, and Chapter 11 YTD has reached 8,200 — now 98.8% of 2025’s entire full-year Chapter 11 total of 8,299, requiring just 99 more cases to shatter the annual commercial restructuring record that 2026 has been chasing since mid-year. The 541,621 cumulative total means 2026 needs to average only 3,005 filings per week over the remaining seven weeks to match 2025’s full-year total — a bar the year will clear at four times the required pace, all but guaranteeing a new annual record.
6. Comparative Analysis With Previous Years Week 45’s 10,289 filings extends the unbroken streak of year-over-year gains at every calendar week to 45 consecutive weeks: it exceeds 2022’s Week 45 of 6,879 by +49.6%, 2023’s 9,171 by +12.2%, 2024’s 8,932 by +15.2%, and 2025’s 10,101 by +1.9%. The +1.9% margin over 2025 is the second-narrowest YoY gap of the year (behind Week 43’s +0.2%), and for the same structural reason — 2025’s Week 45 of 10,101 was itself a relatively strong reading that set a high comparable base for this calendar point. The five-year trend for Week 45 shows steady upward progression: 6,879 → 9,171 → 8,932 → 10,101 → 10,289, with 2024’s slight dip from 2023 being the only exception in an otherwise consistent climb. The YTD comparison remains more informative than any single-week reading: 2026’s 50,469-case surplus over 2025 through the same 45 weeks is a gap that reflects the full year’s accumulated advantage across all calendar periods, not merely the strong weeks. The pattern across five years at this point in the calendar — a post-Wk44 pullback that nonetheless exceeds the prior year’s reading — demonstrates a structure that has been reproduced with remarkable consistency, suggesting it reflects durable household and business financial dynamics rather than any singular external catalyst.
7. Analyzing the Filings Per Capita Adjusted for a 2026 U.S. population of 341 million, the running weekly average through Week 45 translates to 35.30 filings per million Americans per week — a slight dip from Week 44’s elevated 35.40, as the lower Week 45 count modestly pulled the cumulative rate back toward its mid-year anchor. Week 45 itself contributed only 30.17 per million for the single week, the lowest per-capita reading since the summer and a direct reflection of the post-spike normalization that historical patterns predicted. The comparable running per-capita rates through Week 45 for prior years continue their staircase ascent: 22.01 per million in 2022, 25.65 in 2023, 29.08 in 2024, and 32.20 in 2025 — each year adding between 3.1 and 3.6 per million to the previous year’s pace at this same calendar milestone. At 35.30 per million through Week 45, 2026 sits 3.10 above 2025’s comparable rate — the lowest annual increment recorded in the four-year series, though well within a range that still represents structurally elevated filing activity relative to any pre-pandemic baseline. With seven weeks remaining, the running per-capita rate will likely fluctuate modestly week to week as the year moves toward its December close, but the structural trajectory is clear and unlikely to shift materially in either direction.
8. Analyzing the Changing Filings Per Capita The year-over-year per-capita increment through Week 45 stands at +3.10 per million — the difference between 2026’s 35.30 and 2025’s 32.20 at the same calendar point, and the lowest reading for this measure in the entire year. The gradual drift from +3.51 at the start of the year to +3.10 through Week 45 reflects two converging forces: 2026’s autumn weeks have been consistently good but not dramatically stronger than 2025, while 2025’s own autumn was elevated by comparison to prior years — the two effects together compress the annual gap without indicating any underlying weakening. The four-year series of annual per-capita increments through Week 45 reads: +3.64 (2022–23), +3.43 (2023–24), +3.12 (2024–25), and now +3.10 (2025–26) — a gradual step-down that has been underway for three consecutive annual transitions and may signal that the normalization cycle is maturing, with annual additions beginning to decelerate even as the absolute level continues to rise. If the final seven weeks produce filings close to the year’s running average, the full-year 2025-to-2026 increment will likely settle near 3.1 per million — a meaningful step down from the 3.5-range of 2022–2024, though still solidly positive. The long-run implication is that future annual increments may continue shrinking toward 2.5–3.0 per million as the base grows larger, though any renewed economic stress could push the rate higher again.
9. Forecast the Expected Filing Numbers for the Rest of the Year With seven weeks remaining and 541,621 filings already recorded, the three projection methods have again clustered tightly and all point to a year-over-year gain of approximately 11–12% over 2025’s 562,658 full-year total. The first method — averaging the most recent four weeks (Weeks 42 through 45, at 12,281 per week) and projecting that pace over seven remaining weeks — yields a full-year estimate of 627,590. The second method, extending the year’s full 45-week running average of 12,036 per week through year-end, produces 625,873. The third approach, applying the historical 3.5% second-half seasonal premium to the H1 weekly average of 11,932, generates an adjusted pace of 12,350 per week and a full-year projection of 628,070. All three methods converge on a final tally of roughly 625,900 to 628,100 — a consensus range that has remained stable for several consecutive weeks and is now sufficiently well-supported to treat as the year’s most likely outcome. The midpoint of that range, approximately 627,000, would represent an increase of roughly 64,300 cases above 2025’s full-year total — the largest absolute annual addition in the data series.
10. Forecast the Trends of Increasing Filings After 2025 Chapter 11 is 99 cases away from breaking 2025’s full-year total of 8,299 with seven weeks remaining — a threshold it will almost certainly cross in Week 46, adding 2026 to the multi-year streak of annual Chapter 11 records first set in 2024 and extended in 2025, and signaling that commercial restructuring activity has found a structurally elevated new base level following years of post-pandemic suppression. The expected Wk45-to-Wk46 bounce in prior years — +12.7% in 2022, -1.7% in 2023, +7.6% in 2024, and +5.7% in 2025 — suggests that next week’s filings are more likely to tick upward than to continue declining, with a range of roughly 10,500 to 11,500 as the most probable Zone 46 reading. Looking further ahead, December’s final three to four weeks typically show compressed volume as the holiday period suppresses filings, which means the year’s remaining run rate will likely taper gradually before closing, consistent with the forecast range of 625,900 to 628,100. Extending 2026’s per-capita rate forward at the same annual increment of approximately +3.1 per million suggests a 2027 running average near 38.4 per million — implying an annual filing total somewhere in the range of 650,000 to 665,000, roughly 23,000 to 38,000 cases above 2026’s projected final count. The four-year pattern of consistent structural growth — adding roughly 3.1 to 3.6 per million annually to a base that itself keeps rising — has now been reproduced across 45 weeks of 2026 and three full prior years, making it the most reliable trend in the data and the strongest single basis for forecasting where the bankruptcy system is headed through the remainder of this decade.

ChatGPT 5.6 Sol Analysis of Week 45 District-Level Filing Data

1. In week 45, beginning Monday, November 9, 2026, United States bankruptcy courts recorded 10,289 filings nationwide. Chapter 7 accounted for 5,892 cases, Chapter 13 for 4,223, Chapter 11 for 171, and Chapter 12 for 3. Compared with week 44’s 16,280 filings, the national total fell by 5,991 cases, or about 36.8%. Week 45 was also about 1,992 filings below the recent four-week average of 12,281, a difference of roughly 16.2%. After the unusually busy week 44, filing activity therefore returned to a much lower level during the week beginning November 9.
2. One of the most interesting features of week 45 was the unusually large share of Chapter 13 cases. The 4,223 Chapter 13 filings represented about 41.0% of all filings, the second-highest Chapter 13 share recorded during the first 45 weeks of 2026. Chapter 7 still led with 5,892 cases, or about 57.3% of the national total, leaving a gap of only 1,669 filings between the two chapters. Compared with week 45 of 2025, Chapter 13 increased by 290 cases, or 7.4%, while Chapter 7 increased by only 51 cases, or 0.9%. The numbers show that repayment-plan filings played a much larger role in week 45 than they did during many other weeks this year.
3. District activity in week 45 was led by the Northern District of Georgia with 535 filings, followed by the Central District of California with 520 and the Middle District of Florida with 456. The Northern District of Illinois recorded 338 cases, while the Northern District of Texas recorded 288. Together, those five districts generated 2,137 filings, representing about 20.8% of the national total. Compared with week 44, Central California declined by 320 cases, Middle Florida by 414, Northern Illinois by 284, and Northern Texas by 122, while Northern Georgia increased by 21. Those district-level changes help explain much of the nationwide decline from 16,280 filings in week 44 to 10,289 in week 45.
4. Geographic differences remained substantial during week 45. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands recorded 0 filings, while the Virgin Islands recorded 1, Alaska 2, and the District of Columbia 3. By comparison, the Northern District of Georgia handled 535 cases, more than 267 times Alaska’s total. The five busiest districts produced 2,137 filings, while those five lowest-volume jurisdictions combined for only 6. With 10,289 filings nationwide, bankruptcy activity continued to be concentrated heavily in a relatively small group of higher-volume districts.
5. Through week 45, United States courts have recorded 541,621 bankruptcy filings in 2026, compared with 491,152 through the same point in 2025. That difference of 50,469 filings represents year-to-date growth of approximately 10.3%. The average so far this year stands at about 12,036 filings per week, compared with roughly 10,914 during the first 45 weeks of 2025. Chapter 7 has reached 342,351 cases, Chapter 13 190,760, Chapter 11 8,200, and Chapter 12 310. Compared with 2025, those totals are higher by 33,149 Chapter 7 cases, 16,294 Chapter 13 cases, 971 Chapter 11 cases, and 55 Chapter 12 cases.
6. Week 45’s 10,289 filings were 188 higher than the 10,101 cases recorded during the same week of 2025, an increase of approximately 1.9%. Compared with week 45 of 2024, when courts recorded 8,932 filings, the current total was 1,357 cases higher, or about 15.2%. Chapter 13 increased from 3,933 cases in 2025 to 4,223 in 2026, while Chapter 7 rose slightly from 5,841 to 5,892. Chapter 11 moved in the opposite direction, falling from 323 cases in 2025 to 171 this year, while Chapter 12 declined from 4 to 3. More broadly, the 541,621 filings accumulated through week 45 are 10.3% above 2025 and 22.8% above 2024 at the same point of the year.
7. Using a rounded United States population benchmark of about 342 million, week 45’s 10,289 filings equal approximately 30.1 filings per million residents. Chapter 7 contributed about 17.2 filings per million, while Chapter 13 accounted for roughly 12.3 per million. Chapter 11 contributed about 0.5 per million, and the 3 Chapter 12 cases represented less than 0.1 per million. Week 44’s 16,280 filings equated to approximately 47.6 per million, meaning the national rate fell by about 17.5 filings per million in one week. The population-adjusted figures therefore reflect the same sharp 36.8% decline seen in the national filing total.
8. The broader per-capita trend remains higher than in previous years despite the sharp decline from week 44. Using the same population benchmark, week 45 of 2025’s 10,101 filings equal about 29.5 filings per million, compared with 30.1 per million in 2026. Week 45 of 2024 was lower at approximately 26.1 filings per million, based on 8,932 cases. On a year-to-date basis, the 2026 weekly average of 12,036 filings works out to roughly 35.2 filings per million, compared with 31.9 in 2025 and 28.7 in 2024. The progression from 28.7 to 31.9 to 35.2 filings per million shows that bankruptcy activity has continued rising over the past three years even after adjusting for population.
9. Through week 45, the 541,621 filings recorded in 2026 translate to an average of approximately 12,036 cases per week. If that pace continues for the remaining 7 weeks, the year would finish with roughly 625,873 filings. Using the recent four-week average of 12,281 instead would produce a slightly higher estimate of approximately 627,590 cases. A more conservative scenario in which filings remain at week 45’s 10,289 level would produce about 613,644 filings for the year. Those scenarios would place 2026 roughly 9.1% to 11.5% above the 562,658 filings recorded during all of 2025.
10. Annual bankruptcy filings increased from 378,338 in 2022 to 445,209 in 2023, 503,795 in 2024, and 562,658 in 2025. Those increases represented annual growth of approximately 17.7%, 13.2%, and 11.7%, showing continued expansion even as the pace gradually moderated. A central 2026 projection of about 625,873 filings would represent another increase of roughly 11.2% over 2025. If annual growth then moderated to around 7%, filings would reach approximately 669,684 in 2027 and 716,562 in 2028. The data therefore support continued growth after 2025, although the decline from 16,280 filings in week 44 to 10,289 in week 45 shows that the longer-term increase will continue to include substantial week-to-week variation.